Likely electoral kingmakers, Iraq’s minority Kurds insist their demands be heard

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Iraq’s Kurds want a voice in exchange for support

SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq — After years of what they consider unfulfilled promises, Iraq’s Kurds are hardening their demands to wring out the best deal from prospective allies following an election that has left the country’s future government unclear and the Kurds’ support more prized than ever.

In interviews this week in their self-rule northern region, Kurdish leaders and voters demanded real concessions on contentious issues many feel have been left to wither under previous postwar governments, including that of longtime ally Nouri al-Maliki.

Heading into the March 7 vote, a Kurdish alliance with al-Maliki’s Shiite supporters was seen as the most logical choice. A shared resentment over perceived second-class treatment under Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-dominated rule helped seal that bond.

But the results that thrust Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite who relied on significant Sunni support, into the front-runner’s spot have changed that dynamic.

Many Kurds — who have been increasingly alienated from al-Maliki because of differences with the central government over oil contracts and other issues — say they are now willing to shift alliances to maintain a voice in Baghdad despite the nationalist stance of many Allawi supporters.

“We haven’t seen any benefit from al-Maliki. He hasn’t done anything for the Iraqi people, let alone the Kurds. Let’s try Allawi. At least it’s a change,” said Twan Mohammed, 35, a mobile phone card salesman in Sulaimaniyah.

The speed with which high-ranking officials from the leading coalitions raced up to the three-province Kurdish region in the days after the election for a 325-member parliament emphasizes just how important the U.S.-allied minority’s support will be.

Allawi went to the Kurdish region at least twice, and met with President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, in Baghdad on Wednesday. Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi, a member of the Shiite-led Iraqi National Alliance, traveled north as well, while al-Maliki appeared in a chummy meeting before television cameras in Baghdad with Talabani.

But Kurdish support won’t come cheap.

“We must be very serious in terms of the commitments that will be extracted from any future government,” regional Prime Minister Barham Saleh said in an interview in his office in the regional capital Irbil. “Iraq cannot afford another four years of political stagnation.”

Some Kurdish officials are demanding that any agreements with would-be suitors in forming an inclusive power-sharing government be put down firmly in writing as a condition of their support.

“In previous alliances, the Kurds have made the mistake of making agreements without signing any documents,” said Fadhil Mirany, a senior official from the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which is allied with Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. “We won’t make the same mistake this time.”

High on the agenda, as always, is the resolution of long-standing disagreements over disputed territory, particularly the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, to Kurdish satisfaction. But that could prove more difficult after Kurds split electoral control of Kirkuk’s Tamim province with Allawi’s bloc after years in the majority.

Kurds say they want the next government to abide by Iraq’s young and largely untested constitution, which includes provisions for a referendum to settle Kirkuk’s future along with other protections.

They are also demanding greater clarity on the role of, and more funding for, regional security forces known as the peshmerga, many of whom are former militia members who fought Saddam and complain of lower pay and fewer resources than their Iraqi army counterparts.

Also still to be resolved is the fate of oil and gas contracts Kurds have signed without Baghdad’s approval. The lack of a national oil law has left the legality of those lucrative deals in limbo.

“These are the issues that affect the economic realities of Kurdish society,” said Hiwa Mirza Saber, a senior member of the Kurdistan Islamic Union.

Kurdish leaders declined to be more specific about their demands as they play the field by talking with all the major vote-getting blocs in heated jockeying to decide who will lead Iraq as U.S. troops leave.

Iraq’s fragmented political landscape plays to the Kurds’ advantage, although followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr also have emerged as key powerbrokers.

No electoral alliance came even close to a parliamentary majority — making the support of the Kurds invaluable during efforts to cobble together a coalition government.

Allawi’s Iraqiya bloc got the most seats, with 91, but that was just two more than al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition. The leading Kurdish alliance, meanwhile, picked up 43 seats, while smaller Kurdish parties claimed another 14 combined.

Kurds are known for their political unity in Baghdad. While an upstart political party called Gorran — Change in English — has broken the lock on power held by the two traditional parties, its leader indicated they would likely stick together on core demands on the national stage even as they disagree on local issues.

“On common issues, we’ll support them. But we won’t support them on points of dispute,” Gorran head Nosherwan Mustafa said in an interview in his Sulaimaniyah home.

While Kurdish leaders say they are committed to remaining part of a federal Iraq, separatist sentiments remain high. Portraits of Talabani and Kurdish regional President Massoud Barzani are the only leaders on display in hotel lobbies and market stalls in this rapidly developing city, where a huge Kurdish, not Iraqi, flag dominates the downtown skyline.

Much is at stake. American military commanders have described tensions between Kurds and Arabs as the greatest threat to Iraq’s security as the U.S. steps up troop withdrawals this year.

Many Kurds are insisting that they retain the federal presidency, a ceremonial but still evolving role. Talabani wants to return to the post despite complaints by supporters of Allawi’s winning coalition it ought to be in the hands of Iraq’s Arab majority. The current president and his deputies have veto power, but are expected to lose that once the new government is formed.

“This is the window in history where they can secure major concessions,” Mustafa Alani, an Iraqi analyst at the Gulf Research Center in the United Arab Emirates, said of the Kurds. “Their support will come at a very high price.”

Associated Press reporter Yahya Barzanji contributed reporting.