New poll in Republican primary for US Senate in Fla. shows Rubio in dead heat with Gov. Crist

Poll: GOP primary for US Senate seat in Fla. a tie

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Gov. Charlie Crist is in a close race with former state lawmaker Marco Rubio for the Republican nomination for an open U.S. Senate seat, a poll released Tuesday showed.

Rubio, a lawyer who served as Speaker of the House, was once considered a long shot against Crist, who has widespread name recognition and a significant fundraising lead. But with Florida’s primary less than seven months away, Rubio was favored by 47 percent compared with 44 percent who preferred Crist, a gap that put the candidates about even in the Quinnipiac University poll that has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The random telephone survey, which included 673 registered GOP voters, was conducted Jan. 20-24.

“The horse race numbers are not a fluke,” said Peter Brown, assistant polling director for Quinnipiac in Connecticut. “Rubio’s grass roots campaigning among Republican activists around the state clearly has paid off.”

The latest survey marks a stunning turnaround for the 38-year-old Rubio, a conservative who trailed Crist by 31 points in a Quinnipiac survey taken in June.

“Marco Rubio has caught the wave,” Brown said Tuesday.

“It’s not a good thing to be an incumbent in a lot of places this year and Gov. Crist is a virtual incumbent in this race,” Brown said.

Crist, who is bypassing a re-election bid as governor for the Senate race, shrugged off the latest poll numbers before heading into a Cabinet meeting.

“It’s really not my concern,” Crist said. “You know these are tough times for any leader. It’s challenging to lead in difficult times, but we’re going to keep doing it and keep fighting.”

Crist’s campaign released a statement that said the governor had raised $2 million last quarter and has $7.5 million on hand.

Rubio’s campaign is also making inroads on fundraising. He raised $1.75 million in the quarter ending Dec. 31 compared to being outraised by nearly than a 13-to-1 ratio in the first quarter of their race last summer.

“In order to defeat Rubio, Gov. Crist is going to have to turn around a perception that he is not as much the true-blue, or true-red, conservative as Rubio,” Brown said. “That probably means lots of TV commercials attacking Rubio’s conservative credentials.”

The poll showed either Crist or Rubio would defeat little-known Democratic U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami in the general election.

The poll found Crist leading Meek by 48 percent to 36 percent and Rubio was ahead of Meek by 44 percent to 35 percent. That poll had a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.

The U.S. Senate seat is now held by Republican George LeMieux, who was appointed by Crist last summer to fill the rest of former U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez’s term. Martinez retired to spend more time with his family in Orlando.

LeMieux, who managed Crist’s successful gubernatorial campaign in 2006, agreed not to run for the seat when he accepted the appointment.