Tymoshenko threatens to replay 2004 Orange protests if fraud in presidential election

Tymoshenko threatens replay of 2004 Orange revolt

KIEV, Ukraine — Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko vowed Thursday to send her followers to the streets if her opponent steals this weekend’s presidential vote in Ukraine, raising the threat of indefinite political turbulence in this former Soviet nation.

“We will rally the people” a grim Tymoshenko told reporters, pledging to use “all means” to ensure a fair election, including mass protests.

Accusing opponent Viktor Yanukovych of preparing to steal Sunday’s election, she said: “Don’t let him rape democracy.”

Yanukovych derided Tymoshenko’s threats to bring crowds onto the streets as a “sign of weakness.”

“Few people will go. The only people who will go are those that enjoy the dishes that Tymoshenko feeds on — dirt, lies and slander,” he said.

In an apparent snub to his former ally, President Viktor Yushchenko signed a change to the law Thursday that Tymoshenko said will enable her opponent to commit large-scale fraud.

Five years ago, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians clogged the streets of Kiev for weeks to protest a rigged election and demand economic and political reform, in what came to be called the Orange Revolution. Yanukovych had been counted as winning that vote, but the Supreme Court ordered a rerun, which was won by Yushchenko.

Yushchenko’s term was marked by squabbling with Tymoshenko and long power battles with the Yanukovych-led opposition. Yushchenko got only about 5 percent of the vote in the Jan. 17 first round of presidential voting.

Analysts say the chances for prolonged mass protests among the disillusioned population are slim.

“A repeat of the 2004 events are impossible,” said Vladimir Fesenko, the head of Ukraine’s Penta Center for Applied Political Research. “The only people that will take part in street protests will be hired hands and a small number of supporters.”

Meanwhile, Tymoshenko’s political position appears to be rapidly deteriorating as she skirmishes with her opponent for control of key institutions that could affect the outcome of the ballot.

On Wednesday, parliament passed a Yanukovych-backed amendment to the election law repealing a requirement that representatives of both candidates supervise vote counting at polling stations, a move that Tymoshenko said laid the groundwork for fraud.

Tymoshenko pleaded in vain Thursday for Yushchenko not to sign the amendment.

Yushchenko has called on his supporters to vote for “against all,” an option on the Ukrainian ballot.

Yanukovych’s Party of Regions insists that the law won’t limit the effectiveness of local election commissions.

Yanukovych had warned that Tymoshenko could try to disrupt the ballot-counting process by withdrawing her representatives from election boards and disrupt the ballot if she faces defeat Sunday.

“Tymoshenko’s hysterical statements about the amendment to the law on presidential elections, which protects voters’ rights, being undemocratic and that they undermine the fairness of the electoral process, are nothing but a blatant lie,” the Party of Regions said in a statement.

Analysts suggest that Tymoshenko crying foul over possible election fraud may signal her fading political fortunes.

“With every day that passes, Tymoshenko is letting the initiative slip out of her hands,” said Vadim Karasev, director of the Institute of Global Strategies. “Tymoshenko is behaving like a loser.”

Yanukovych’s Part of Regions, Fesenko said, has taken control of the institutions that will prove key in giving an official seal of approval the vote.

“Yanukovych has created the infrastructure for victory, having gained control over the Central Election Commission, key courts and destroyed the Orange majority in parliament,” he said.

Speaking in a television interview broadcast Wednesday, Tymoshenko said her representatives at four local election boards have already been forced to resign.

“The law was only passed today, and already they have begun to throw our representatives out of district and precinct election commissions,” she told the privately owned 1+1 television channel.

Karasev agreed that Wednesday’s law would only tighten Yanukovych’s grip on electoral institutions.

“The situation taking shape is the worst possible scenario for Tymoshenko,” Karasev said. “The Orange coalition has been destroyed.”

Associated Press Writer Douglas Birch contributed to this report.