Japan’s rapid leadership turnover reflects demanding voters, shift away from 1-party dominance

more images

more images

Silver lining in Japan’s revolving door leadership

TOKYO — Japan has gone through prime ministers at a dizzying rate — Naoto Kan is the sixth in the last four years, and 14th over the last two decades — the highest turnover among major industrialized countries.

Several factors are behind this revolving door, from the structure of Japan’s parliament and the media’s power in shaping public opinion to an electorate that is simply less tolerant of poor leadership.

Since 1990, Britain, whose parliamentary system is closest to Japan’s among rich nations, has had five prime ministers, including the recently elected David Cameron. The U.S. has had just four presidents over the same period. Italy comes close with 11 prime ministers, including three people who have served more than once.

The constant change in Japan’s leadership has made it difficult for the government to maintain consistent policies and tackle big problems, like its aging, shrinking population and bulging deficits. It also reflects growing pains in Japan as it sheds the dominance of one party, the Liberal Democrats, which ruled for most of the post-World War II era before being toppled in elections last August.

There are some positives, too, analysts say. The high turnover, particularly in recent years, also shows that Japanese voters are demanding more accountability from their elected leaders, they say.

In the past, prime ministers often could blame bureaucrats — who held powerful sway over the nation’s policymaking — for problems or just ride out the storms. Not any more.

“Japanese are really looking for a government who can solve their problems,” said Sheila Smith, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “They want better governance. They’re not very tolerant.”

The structure of Japan’s two-chambered parliament, the Diet, makes it difficult for leaders to hang on to power. The party controlling the more powerful lower house chooses the prime minister, but in recent years the ruling party has had difficulty controlling the upper house.

Unlike Britain’s weaker chamber, the House of Lords, Japan’s upper house is made up of elected representatives who can block legislation, which can create headaches for the ruling party and contribute to voter discontent over political gridlock.

Also, a poor showing in Japan’s relatively frequent elections — lower house elections must be held every four years and upper house every three years, often at different times — can prompt a prime minister to resign to take responsibility. And sometimes elections are called early.

Japan’s media also shape public opinion about political leaders, analysts say. For one, all major newspapers have monthly surveys measuring the Cabinet’s approval rating, and a persistently low support level can spell doom for prime ministers.

The way the question is framed is key, said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University in Tokyo.

In Britain, the surveys that get the most attention ask voters a relative question — which party do you prefer? But the most-watched polls in Japan ask an absolute question: Do you like the Cabinet or not?

“That’s harsh. It really does make it hard for governments to stay popular,” Nakano said.

Since the mid-1990s, television talk shows that discuss politics — often from a populist, critical perspective — also have sprung up, bringing political discourse into more living rooms. Relatively inexpensive to produce, these shows do little reporting and investigating of their own, and instead debate recent events and take a look at the day’s main newspaper and magazine stories.

“They take a populist stance, expressing outrage about government,” said Nakano. “That makes life very difficult for politicians.”

Perhaps most fundamentally, few Japanese leaders in recent history have had the charisma or leadership skills to deliver results and remain in power for long, analysts say.

Former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, who resigned last week after just eight months in office, was widely perceived as weak and indecisive. Coming to power amid high hopes for change and accountability in government, he stepped down after failing to keep a campaign pledge to move a U.S. Marine base off the island of Okinawa, as well as getting tangled in a funding scandal.

The three prime ministers before him — Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda and Taro Aso — all lasted just a year, done in after poor election results for their party, the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, or by frustration at failing to get bills passed in a divided parliament.

Over the last 30 years, two prime ministers stand out for their long tenure and impressive leadership skills: Yasuhiro Nakasone, who ruled for five years in the mid-1980s, and Junichiro Koizumi, who was in office from 2001 to 2006. Both leaders exuded authority, overcame setbacks to rise to the top and won credibility in the eyes of voters.

The plainspoken Kan, who gained fame 15 years ago for exposing a government cover-up of tainted blood products, exhibits far more charisma than Hatoyama and has the potential to outlast his predecessors, analysts say. He also comes from an ordinary family, not a political dynasty — unlike the last four leaders, who had either fathers or grandfathers who were also prime ministers.

Kan faces an immediate test in July’s upper house elections, and so far surveys show that he’s restored some confidence in his Democratic Party of Japan. But in Japan’s fickle political world, a poor showing could cost him his job.

Beyond the elections, he faces pressing problems, including charting a growth course for Japan’s sluggish economy and carrying out an agreement with the U.S. to move Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to a less crowded part of Okinawa — against fierce local opposition.

“The Japanese public has a strong impression of his role in the blood cover-up case, so there’s a sense of ‘Kan can do it,’” said Takehiko Yamamoto, a professor of international politics at Waseda University in Tokyo. Now as prime minister, “it’s up to him to show how compelling he can be.”