Kenyans likely to vote for new constitution on Aug. 4, polls show; likelihood of violence low

Poll results: Kenyans to pass new constitution

NAIROBI, Kenya — Two new opinion polls released Friday found that Kenyans are likely to vote in favor of a new U.S.-backed constitution next month, though a top church leader dismissed the polls as being manipulated by politicians.

The largest poll found that 58 percent of 6,000 people interviewed intend to vote for the draft constitution during the Aug. 4 referendum, while 22 percent would vote no. The rest were undecided or don’t plan to vote.

The poll found that only 3 percent of respondents were worried that violence would break out, a concern in light of the postelection violence that killed more than 1,000 people after the country’s last nationwide vote, the December 2007 presidential election.

“The numbers are quite low, which therefore means that there is that level of tolerance of each other’s position,” said George Waititu, the managing director of the polling firm Synovate, which conducted the 6,000-person poll.

Still, 3 percent of Kenyans translates to hundreds of thousands of people who expect violence, Waititu warned.

Police spokesman Eric Kiraithe on Friday said 6,000 additional police officers will be sent to the Rift Valley — considered a potential hotspot — ahead of the poll. “We are taking no chances,” Kiraithe said.

Top U.S. officials, including President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, have been urging Kenyans to vote for the constitution as part of a reform package sought after the 2007-2008 violence. Kenya’s president and prime minister also support the new draft. The U.S. support has drawn criticism from three Republican Congressmen who say the new constitution would increase access to abortion.

Abortion was the top reason why respondents said they wouldn’t vote for the constitution, named by 62 percent of people who will vote no. A clause about land ownership was named by 47 percent, while recognition of Muslim family courts was named by 40 percent.

A second, smaller poll by the firm Infotrack found that 65 percent of 1,200 people interviewed in person plan to vote yes, while 25 percent plan to vote no. The rest were undecided.

A leader in the campaign against the new constitution, Rev. Peter Karanja, the secretary general of the National Council of Churches of Kenya, said he considers the polls to be part of the “Yes” team’s media campaign. Infotrack in particular is believed to be owned by associates of Prime Minister Raila Odinga, though Karanja would not name names.

“We really haven’t had objective polls published,” Karanja said. “Even some of the companies that conduct polls have more than a casual relationship with some of the key politicians who would want to manipulate opinions. We have been on the campaign trail all over Kenya … and our impressions do not appear to relate in any way with the kind of figures we see published.”

The largest poll, by Synovate, conducted in-person interviews of 6,000 people from July 11-17. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 1.6 percentage points. The second poll, by Infotrack, an affiliate of Harris Interactive, conducted in-person interviews of 2,500 people from July 16-18. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.

A leader backing the new constitution, Morris Odhiambo of the National Civil Society Congress, said he believes the constitution will easily pass because it has provisions in it that will improve Kenyans’ lives.

“I think the ‘No’ side basically started the campaign by sensationalizing issues that were not that grave a concern to Kenyans,” Odhiambo said. “As time has gone by and more civic education has been carried out, people have come to know that things were being misrepresented.”

Karanja said he was optimistic that there would not be any violence, saying there was a clear desire for peace among communities that fight. At a rally against the constitution in downtown Nairobi in mid-June, grenade attacks killed six people.

“Obviously you can never say for sure. If the referendum is rigged as we anticipate, that could provoke violence,” he said.