Germany’s most populous state votes, with Merkel hoping to avoid reverse

Merkel risks reverse in German state election

BERLIN — Chancellor Angela Merkel risks losing her majority in the upper house of parliament as Germany’s most populous state votes Sunday in an election that has loomed over efforts to tackle the Greek debt crisis.

Polls indicate that voters in North Rhine-Westphalia may reject the center-right coalition that has run the region since 2005, stripping Merkel’s federal government of its majority in the upper house — which represents Germany’s 16 states and must approve major legislation.

That would make the country, Europe’s biggest economy, harder to run.

The stock of Merkel’s federal coalition, which took power in October and is made up of the same parties, has been sliding following a poor start, constant squabbling over policy and the challenge from the Greek crisis.

Opposition leaders initially accused Merkel of holding out on the aid to Athens to avoid annoying supporters before the election — rescuing Greece is unpopular in Germany.

The vote for the state legislature in North Rhine-Westphalia — a region including Cologne, Duesseldorf and the industrial Ruhr area where more than 13 million people are eligible to vote — is a major electoral test.

“This state election is on a knife edge,” state governor Juergen Ruettgers, a deputy leader of Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats, acknowledged this week.

Merkel’s coalition now controls 37 of the 69 votes in the upper house. Losing the six from North Rhine-Westphalia would force Merkel to haggle with the opposition to push through much of her policy agenda, likely complicating prospects of pushing through tax relief in a bid to rev up the economy.

On Friday, however, parliament approved a bill allowing Germany to grant as much as euro22.4 billion ($28.6 billion) in credit over three years as part of a wider rescue plan.

“A stable currency is the be-all and end-all of prosperity and security,” Merkel, who says it was right to hold out for tough Greek austerity measures, said Saturday.

A bigger problem with voters may be the government’s stumbling start at home. Freed last year from a “grand coalition” with center-left rivals in which she shone as a consensus-builder, Merkel then got bogged down in internal divisions.

Her party and its new coalition partners, the pro-business Free Democrats, squabbled about the wisdom of making big tax cuts soon — appearing to avoid difficult decisions as the election loomed. The Free Democrats declined in polls as the appeal of their tax-cutting call faded.

Without an upper-house majority — a frequent situation and one Merkel experienced in her first time — the chancellor may soon be back to consensus-building. Opposition parties oppose tax cuts.

Sunday’s ballot offers the opposition Social Democrats a chance to win back a traditional heartland after the heavy national election defeat in September.

They led North Rhine-Westphalia for nearly four decades until losing it in 2005 amid discontent over then-Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s efforts to trim the welfare state.

Several permutations may be possible if the center-right government doesn’t win a majority.

Governor Ruettgers might be able to form a different coalition, while Social Democratic challenger Hannelore Kraft hopes to govern with the Greens. A hard-left rival, the Left Party, may complicate those hopes, however.