New Maoist-communist government or failed poll in Nepal?

KATHMANDU - As Nepal’s parliament readied to hold the third prime ministerial election in less than two years, the turbulent republic swung between a new communist-Maoist coalition and the spectre of an inconclusive prime ministerial poll Wednesday with none of the three contenders able to muster the required support.

With minutes left before the election, the former Maoist guerrillas, the largest party in parliament, had reached a poll understanding with the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (UML), which is leading the caretaker government.

Nepal’s complicated politics received a new twist when minutes before the election at 11 a.m., UML contestant Jhalanath Khanal handed over a “trust document” to Maoist chief Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda, pledging his party’s commitment to the peace process and urging the former guerrillas to support him.

Taking its call on the offer, the Maoist leadership has agreed to support Khanal if he can garner the support of additional MPs to show two-third majority in parliament.

If Khanal fails to do that, his own party has warned it would withdraw his nomination.

Then the prime ministerial contest will become a duel between Prachanda and the Nepali Congress, the second largest party, which could fizzle into none getting the required majority.

If the UML, that has 109 MPs, join forces with the Maoists, who have 237 MPs, it can attain majority without any trouble.

However, to obtain two-third majority, it needs the support of either the Terai parties or the other fringe parties.

UML sources claimed they had won the support of 372 lawmakers and needed only 29 more to reach the magic figure.

They also said one of the Terai parties - the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum with 25 MPs - had informally agreed to support Khanal.

Four parties from the Terai plains have formed a bloc that commands the support of over 80 MPs.

Though it can help the Maoist-communist alliance reach two-third majority, its decision is yet to be made public as the parties called a last-minute meeting on the eve of the election.

The second-largest party, the Nepali Congress (NC), which has 114 MPs, is appealing to both the communists and the Terai bloc to support its candidate, former home minister Ram Chandra Poudel.

The NC, which too called an emergency meeting, expressed fears that Wednesday’s election would not see any of the three contenders get even simple majority.

It said there was a strong possibility of a second round of election, which would give the parties more time to step up negotiations and reach an agreement.

Since they united against King Gyanendra’s army-backed government in 2006 and caused it to collapse, Nepal’s parties failed to show further statesmanship and decisiveness.

Nepali politics since the fall of the royal regime has been characterised by infighting and dithering.

It made the parties fail to promulgate a new constitution in time and rehabilitate the guerrilla army of the Maoists, which remains a worrying parallel army four years after the rebels signed a peace accord.

(Sudeshna Sarkar can be contacted at sudeshna.s@ians.in)