Kenya’s August vote on new constitution may spark violence between groups, experts warn

Vote on Kenyan constitution may spark violence

NAIROBI, Kenya — Political observers seeking ways to avoid conflict over Kenya’s upcoming constitutional referendum said Thursday they fear the country could see violence if the proposed constitution is adopted.

Kenya votes on a new constitution Aug. 4. The draft contains two controversial clauses — one that allows abortion in cases of life-threatening pregnancies and a second one recognizing Muslim courts used to resolve family disputes.

But political scientist Duncan Okello — who participated in Thursday’s government-called meeting of academics and conflict specialists — said delaying the referendum could result in even more bloodshed than Kenya’s last election. Opponents of the new constitution have called for the postponement of the referendum until a consensus is reached over the contested issues.

“If an act of man prevents the referendum from taking place then the violence will be 10 times what we saw in the postelection violence,” Okello said.

The observers said violence will most likely occur in western Kenya, around the Rift Valley region, which has been a hotspot for political violence for nearly two decades. Some of that region’s residents oppose the adoption of the draft constitution, the observers said.

The Rift Valley was the epicenter of Kenya’s 2007-2008 postelection violence that left more than 1,000 people dead and 600,000 displaced from their homes.

Okello said if the constitution is adopted, the biggest challenge will be to find the good leadership to implement it.

“Rules matter but the leadership matters more,” Okello said.

Okello said his team’s research shows there will be no immediate violence if the proposed constitution is rejected, but grievances by the Muslim community who feel marginalized by the current constitution may lead them to seek secession.

Okello said rejection of the constitution will kill the momentum of other reforms.

Adoption of a new constitution was one of the reforms agreed on in a deal to end the 2007-2008 violence. Analysts partly blamed the violence on the enormous powers given to the president by the current constitution.

The powers of the president have been abused since Kenya’s 1963 independence from Britain by successive presidents who have favored tribesmen and friends in the distribution of resources. The new constitution introduces American-style checks and balances on the presidency.